Erin Byers Honors Sociology Dr. Bobby Jones Dec. 3, 2002 The Knoxville Transformation How Our City Planners and Residents Encounter Population Changes Of all the topics to choose from for this project, population and urbanization was definitely the hardest to see in an empirical way. It seems that population changes cannot be seen except for in the affects they have on a community, economy or society. It has been called a catalyst, and not a cause, for many problems. In Knoxville and the surrounding areas, the problem seems mainly to be poor planning for the growth and movement of its people. In part, these changes may be viewed as a natural occurrence any city has problems with, impossible to reverse, or simply not a big deal. However, in our generation, the ever-present threat of "six-billion" emphasizes our need to correct problems that have arisen. In this project I have concluded that any problem-solving we are to do regarding population issues is to be done at a local level in creative ways. It may be impossible for the citizens and urban planners of this city to localize agriculture and streamline transportation throughout the entire country, but among things in our control are westward spreading, reliance on the automobile, pollution and environment control, and efficient use of energy. I believe it is both impossible to try and reduce births, and largely unnecessary in this setting, because the developed world generally practices birth control and is below the fertility replacement level, which I will soon discuss further. My first phase of research, concentrating on very general, global problems of population, was pretty straightforward-checking out tons of books at the library. I tried to avoid information that was obvious and redundant, such as "the population of Earth will soon reach 7 billion." I focused on details of why the population boom of these two centuries occurred, how these trends are moving now, and the real relation this has to social problems. Though environmental problems are often the most obvious consequences of growth, I was more interested in problems of community, infrastructure and economy. In beginning my second phase of research, I spent hours online, determining what local aspects I was actually looking for. I tended towards local planning and zoning boards, as well as some utility and transportation providers. Soon I began getting leads. Dr. Jones mentioned John Nolt, who mentioned Mary English. Both are scholarly, environmentally-aware types who have studied mainly our lifestyle and its affects on the area we live in. They have both been involved in writing the book What Have We Done, which discusses some of these affects. I read the chapter involving population before getting in touch with Mary English. Dennis Yankee was referred to me after I emailed the TVA Natural Heritage Group, a department I helped with some a few summers ago. They monitor TVA lands and the species living there. Jack Neely, journalist at the Metro Pulse, wrote an article about early Knoxville politics I ran across online. I have had some contact with the Metro Pulse before, and besides liking everyone I have met from the paper, I knew Jack Neely was familiar with Knoxville history. I also looked up a lot of local fact sheets, statistics and charts, as well as public meeting calendars. I found out about a meeting held by T-DOT on the subject of passenger rail-a great way for me to see city planning in the works. Some sources I tried to get in touch with but never heard back from were Planned Parenthood, the Clinch-Powell Resource Conservation and Development Council, and the East Tennessee chapter of Zero Population Growth. Still, I think I learned a lot about this city's population dynamics throughout the project. From the reasons people chose to spread westward to the main ways we waste energy, and from problem-solving to interesting bits of Knoxville history, this has been some of the most interesting research I've done. Early in the semester, when I was checking out books for my initial research, I wanted to get the most modern books the library had. I went very early, and everything I had looked up was checked in. A lot of controversy surrounds the question of whether our booming population has a cause within our control, or is just a natural problem of exponential growth. I did find that some major world changes in the 1800's caused an unnatural growth spurt. In this time, most women would have around five children in their lives, because childhood diseases would kill many of them. However, with the Industrial Revolution, medicine and living conditions improved and these children began to survive more often, and most would reach adulthood. Still, family trends would take generations to alter. In the meantime, women kept having around five children, and all of them grew up to have more large families. The result was not only a few extra people, but a population that had a higher ratio of young people to older people. This caused "population momentum"-since younger people are more likely to reproduce, the ratio of those reproducing to those not reproducing jumped significantly. It was not until the 1960's that families started getting smaller in the developed world: women began having families of more like two children. There were a couple of reasons for this. First of all, the role of women in society was changing through various feminist movements. Women were beginning to work and leave the home, giving them less time with their children. Fewer children was less stressful for them. Secondly, as women began seeking the same education as men, they moved their marriages back many years. Again, age distribution helped slow growth: as generation gaps grew, overall growth decreased. While this finally brought fertility back down to its replacement level-the level required to sustain humans without growth-it also suddenly left us with an aging population, which would cause problems of its own. The developing world is lowering its fertility at a slightly slower pace than we; women are still having around three children per family. They are above the replacement level and we are slightly below. Still, the trends suggest that soon actual births will not be too rapid, and the growth curve of our planet will flatten out again. Still, we are left with some problematic factors, such as the aging population, to deal with in the meantime. Having identified the reason there is such a major concern about population, I looked at its major effects. I came across a lot of different issues, many of which had several causes and couldn't be blamed entirely on growth. There are issues surrounding immigration, the environment, crime, and everything else under the sun. What I finally decided to focus on was planning-the way our leaders and committees shape our cities, and why. It is also worth looking, I found, at the actions of the citizen himself-how he lives and reacts to the structure of his environment. One book I read, The Malthus Factor, criticized the 18th-century thinker Thomas Malthus, whose ideas about the rich and the poor negatively affected social planning in the shaping of modern Western life. He called poverty a "law of nature," caused mainly by poor people over-breeding and creating more people than there was demand for their work. He believed the rules applied differently to the rich and the poor: the rich had no obligation to spend their hard-earned money helping the poor in any way, and the poor should never have families until they can provide for them financially. This snobbish social Darwinism is certainly an attitude we still see in society today, and the question of whether to provide for the poor is one of the major political battlefields Republicans and Democrats struggle over. One of the first places I contacted in my second phase of research was TVA. I had gone on a field research trip with their Natural Heritage Office-a group of biologists who monitor endangered species on TVA land-a few summers before. They referred me to Dennis Yankee, Projects Manager at the TVA Public Power Institute. A little before noon on November 8, I spoke with him on the phone. I asked first of all for a general idea of how the land has been affected in TVA's time, as it has to serve more and more people. He said that the main positive thing was reforestation of agricultural land since the 1920's. He says there is way more forest now than there has been in the past. The dams have had some adverse affects on the diversity of aquatic life, especially mussels and darters. I asked him how large of a role population growth plays in TVA's day to day planning. As expected, he said it was "hugely important." He said TVA was learning that it is very expensive to build power plants, and create jobs to run them. There is a group, he said, called the Forecasting Group which deals with this sort of planning. He also mentioned that TVA invests about 1 million dollars a day on projects such as using "scrubbers" which clean the air. He didn't talk to me for too long, and said there were some other people who could help me out a little more, such as someone in the Forecasting Group. He said he would email me their names, though I never heard back from him. I had also tried to get Jack Neely, journalist for the Metro Pulse, on the phone several times, and he seemed to be away from his desk a lot. So later that afternoon on November 8, I decided to write him an email instead, as he had originally suggested this as an alternate way to contact him. Instead of listing questions in a dry manner, I started out with a discussion of the specific topic of westward sprawl. I wrote about a paragraph about some things I had read in John Nolt's book about downtown deterioration marking serious problems and even irreversibility of sprawl. Only then did I ask a handful of questions, regarding city planning and the origins of suburbs in Knoxville, as he is somewhat of a historian of this area. I hoped that this conversational introduction to the topic would spur some good information, and it certainly did. Mr. Neely wrote me back later that day with three pages of information. I'm certain I could not have absorbed this much on the phone unless I had recorded the conversation. On the subject of downtown revitalization, Neely said that downtown really wasn't as bad off as some people make it sound. Some areas have higher population densities than suburbs, and the concentration of offices, restaurants, venues and clubs is higher than anywhere else in town. The main things downtown lack are shops and storefronts. I was curious to know how Knoxville began spreading westward in the first place. It had many of the same reasons other cities in this area have-wind blows all the factory smoke eastward, so the richer people move west to avoid it. Beyond this, though, the University and the beginnings of Kingston Pike provided an ideal setting for nicer neighborhoods. After World War II, he said, the westward sprawl increased for several reasons, and I'll mention a few here. Oak Ridge had brought in a lot of scientists, who wanted to live near Knoxville. They generally lived in between the two towns, in West Knoxville. Also, the Ft. Loudoun Dam created stable shoreline all along the Northshore area, which developers quickly built on. Thirdly, as I-40 was built along the now-extensive Kingston Pike, with many exits, a "synergy" of ideal commercial property was created. The area around West Town Mall is a good example of this development. I had asked Jack Neely what he thought of city planning decisions made in our time. He mentioned our lack of "impact fees," a program held by a few progressive cities that charges more for basic services like trash disposal for those living farther away from the city. This would ideally curb urban sprawl. So could more strict development boundaries imposed by the city to protect agricultural land from being turned into cheap neighborhoods. And, of course, there is always the controversy over Turkey Creek's recent development, including a new Super Wal-Mart, which arguably destroyed some of the last significant wetlands between Cedar Bluff and Farragut. Neely was surprised that more people didn't object to this project. Dr. John Nolt is my philosophy professor here at UT, and was mentioned to me by Dr. Jones. His book What Have We Done includes a chapter on population issues in our bioregion. It gives some basic facts about numbers of people over the past few decades in different counties. Our metropolitan area, which includes Knox, Anderson, Blount Sevier, Grainger and Jefferson counties, grew 44.3 percent from 1970 to 1992. Some consequences of this growth are inevitable, such as building new houses and roads. The problems this book chooses to focus on are specific and environmental, and some of the solutions to these problems are quite clever. One such issue is that of urban streams. Knoxville has a few of these, and if managed properly, they can serve many functions. They can control flooding, provide aesthetically pleasing greenways and bring people out into public, and they serve a wide variety of biological functions if the shorelines are properly kept clean and allowed to grow up. Third Creek has great potential to be such a multi-purpose stream, with bike trails and wide waterways, but parts of the shoreline lack significant vegetation, leaving the habitat of any animals living there fragmented. The water is also incredibly dirty from dumping and trash from water grates and neighborhoods the water passes through. With just a little more effort from the city to enforce dumping regulations and develop plant life, and the continued efforts of citizen-organized river clean-ups, Nolt thinks Third Creek could be transformed. The book also touches on the revitalization of downtown. While it praises the waterfront development, it laments that much of the shoreline of the Tennessee River was damaged biologically by the park and restaurants. Nolt also thinks that in bringing people downtown, more accommodations need to be made for bicyclers, especially in construction zones. This is the least polluting form of travel and should be encouraged. Another main traffic issue for downtown is that of delivery trucks, which Nolt thinks should be discouraged. An excellent idea for managing delivery truck traffic is mentioned-"transportation parks." This would be like a truck stop combined with warehouses and all the local distributors' equipment. By centralizing the place where all these different companies transfer goods, less truck traffic would run through the city, ideally. If implemented correctly, I think this idea could really improve pollution and noise downtown, and keep truck traffic in the suburbs minimal. It would be difficult, however, to get all these companies to agree to use the same facilities; they only do that now if they have made big contracts. The city government would have to get involved. Dr. Nolt told me about Mary English when I asked him about the chapter on population. He said Mary was the current author of that chapter, and that he had not done the original research. I emailed Mary a few times to try and set up an interview. She preferred a group meeting since another student had contacted her, so I coordinated with the other students and set a time with Mary to meet at the EERC, where she works. On November 12, 3:45, I met Mary, who is a Research Leader at the EERC, with two other students from class. It was interesting because she was of a strong opinion that growth and overpopulation were not problems in our area, but that the way we lived was. The other students with me asked a lot of literal questions such as "how does population growth affect the economy," to which she reiterated her view that this was pretty irrelevant. We had an interesting conversation on the areas around the Smokies such as Sevierville, Kodak and Cosby. She told us that more people shop on the way to the Smokies in areas like Pigeon Forge than actually visit the Park. Josh, who is from Sevierville, added that the growth has hurt some of the older merchants-the Red Roof Outlet Mall has gone bankrupt because there is too much competition. Mary Distinguished between several types of people influxes that affected the region. Tourists, of course, go to hike and to visit amusement parks. Shoppers, however, were a little different because they often came from larger urban areas such as Knoxville, seeking a bargain. A third type is people with second homes, either their own or on timeshares. There are cabins and chalets now, she said, in places that were previously considered unbuildable because they were too steep. Advances in construction have changed that. As we began discussing Knoxville itself more, she noted that the population center, or where the most people were living in a given radius of land, had moved out to Cedar Bluff. That's about 15 miles away from downtown. This really points to developers' and residents' dependence on I-40 to get anywhere in town. Jack Neely in fact described Cedar Bluff as "a classic postwar interstate-exit suburb." Certainly sprawl is a problem in Knoxville, but when we pulled out the recent News-Sentinel article claiming Knoxville was the 8th worst in the country for sprawl, she was skeptical. She explained that just because our population density is low for such a large space, there are geographical features and farmland that keep a lot of land sparsely populated and could skew results. She also showed us this chart from the website of the ERA-Economics Research Service of the USDA. Though use of land for urban purposes is small, she said, depending on "what's going on" there, the amounts of land used for other purposes, and how they are used, can vary wildly. Graphic Source: http://ers.usda.gov/Briefing/LandUse/majorlandusechapter.htm Mary really wanted to emphasize that the problem was more our use of resources than how many people live in this region. She left us with the thought, "A lot more people could live in Knoxville and have a lot less impact on the environment if they lived differently. They wouldn't like living with that many people or differently, but they could." Looking at the Metropolitan Planning Commission's website, I checked a few facts on local population and urban patterns discussed with Mary English. The 2000 center of population in Knox County hadn't in fact reached Cedar Bluff, but was around where Western Avenue turns off to I-75 and 640. Still, this is further West than Lonsdale, the center of population in 1980 (http://www.knoxmpc.org/locldata/cenpop00.htm). As for current population growth, the city and county averaged to 13.8% over the past 10 years. As one might expect, the city itself was only growing at 5.3% while the county had grown at 22% (http://www.knoxmpc.org/locldata/demo01.pdf). Still, while 14% doesn't seem outrageous, according to the website of an organization called FAIR-Federation for American Immigration Reform, Tennessee was above the median among states in numbers and percentages of growth (http://www.fairus.org/html/07273062.htm). Most likely, there is no clear answer as to how much growth is too much growth. At 6:00 in the evening November 14, I sat in on a T-DOT meeting on a statewide passenger rail system. Going to this meeting was mostly interesting because I saw some ways urban planners consider population dynamics in their plans. The spokesman started out listing some reasons the rail system was being considered. Traffic has grown significantly on I-40 and some other major veins, tourism to our area has been on the rise and connecting our rails with neighboring states could bring more rail traffic, particularly a main rail line running North-South in mid-Kentucky. The four lines they found most feasible are as shown: This didn't surprise me, as they simply seem to be the routes most people drive. Still, T-DOT's representatives explained many more detailed methods they used to investigate these routes. Most of these areas have existing commercial rail that could be used for a fee instead of building new. Some routes were ruled out because rail land had been purchased by developers, and would be hard to reacquire. I believe this was the main cause for not considering a Chattanooga-Atlanta line. They showed three different tables comparing the four lines in terms of capital required to start it, cost recovery and cost-benefit ratio, or if the cost was worth it in terms of public service. The latter analysis, cost-benefit, was important to T-DOT moreso than a commercial company because they are a government agency and not a corporation. Some financial loss would be justifiable if a service was being done to Tennesseans. The Bristol to Chattanooga line didn't perform well in the analyses but the others were all deemed feasible. Some advantages T-DOT cited of a passenger rail system include: lower cost transportation, energy savings, opening state-traversing travel to people who have never had the opportunity before, and economic development (as happens with any new form of transportation). I worry that a project like this handled by an organization as notorious as T-DOT might not live up to its fancy power point presentation. Still, if the rail system were cheap and efficient enough to work out, I think Tennessee will have taken a great step in managing its population progressively. I think Knoxville planners have done some progressive things to manage population and urbanization, but like any city in the country, Knoxville has its own set of problems. If the world were an ideal place, I would want to see our public transportation become widely available, and for people to use it. I would like to see even more people moving to downtown lofts and big-name retail to move into the abandoned storefronts on Gay Street. I think these things in turn would bring more art, music and drama to Knoxville-I am always shocked when I go to Asheville, a town smaller than ours, and finding much more interesting things to do in their newspaper than I would here. Aside from making this city less of an isolating place to live, there are a few environmental issues I've come across that I would also have addressed in an ideal world. I would adopt the ideas mentioned in What Have We Done, renovating Third Creek and trying to alleviate that area of crime, and building a state-funded "transportation park," encouraging all other local operations to relocate there. I would certainly set firm zoning boundaries on our suburban borders, because having lived in both South Knoxville and Cedar Bluff, I know the disappointment of finding your favorite field turned into mud, and then vinyl siding. I sympathize with those who want to buy a few acres in the country, but cannot because competition and skyrocketing land value have driven simple lots to costs only developers can afford. I thought at first that my main limitation in this research was the fact that no activist groups seem to exist for population and urbanization. It took me a while to determine what was even meant by the topic. At first, I was trying to concentrate on overpopulation, overcrowding, and the like. As soon as I realized Knoxville was no worse off than the rest of the world, I began to look at the ways we deal with this inevitable force of growth. Although I did not get in touch with as many people as I intended to, I got a lot of help from those I talked to, and learned a lot about this town I did not know, even though I've lived here all my life. I do feel that I have a better perspective of the limitations city governments and planning organizations face when trying to manage the movement of the people residing there. Once a population trend starts, it is nearly impossible to curb development away from where people want to live. Still, I think it is important for the city to stay on top of this issue, because while the worldwide population boom may taper off this century, we are still left with a lot of people to house, transport and employ. Knoxville may not have the greatest track record of working in creative and progressive ways, but sometimes the city surprises me. The revitalization plan for Market Square, which finally seems to have begun, could very well enhance that corner of downtown further than the Tomato Head and free concerts could. I love this city, I want to stay here and look forward to downtown's possible new life, and from now on, I will try to get jobs I can walk to. Works Cited Coward, Harold, ed. Population, Consumption, and the Environment-Religious and Secular Responses. Albany: Statue University of New York Press, 1995. Economic Research Service. US Department of Agriculture. 19 Nov. 2002 . English, Mary, PhD. Research Leader: UT Energy, Environment and Resources Center. Personal interview. 12 Nov. 2002. FAIR Home Page. The Federation for American Immigration Reform. 17 Oct. 2002 . Jacobson, Willard J. Population Education-A Knowledge Base. New York: Teachers College, Columbia University, 1979. Knoxville. Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission. 17 Oct. 2002 . National Research Council. Beyond Six Billion-Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000. Neely, Jack. Journalist: The Metro Pulse. 522-5399 ext. 13. "RE: Population Growth." 8 Nov. 2002. Personal e-mail. Newbold, Bruce K. Six Billion Plus-Population Issues in the Twenty-First Century. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2002. Nolt, John, PhD. What Have We Done? Washburn, TN: Earth Knows Publications, 1997. Ross, Eric B. The Malthus Factor. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998. Tennessee Department of Transportation. Public Hearing. City County Building, Knoxville, TN. 14 Nov. 2002. Yankee, Dennis. Projects Manager: TVA Public Power Institute. 632-1541. Telephone interview. 8 Nov. 2002. .